J:\COMDSC\DSC VISIT REPORTS\2005\USA DEFENCE AND SECURITY 017 DSC 05 E Original: English NAT O   Pa rl i a me n t a ry  As s e mb l y VISIT TO WASHINGTON AND ST LOUIS, UNITED STATES SECRETARIAT REPORT 24-28 JANUARY 2005 International Secretariat 8 February 2005 * This Secretariat Report is presented for information only and does not necessarily represent the official view of the Assembly. Assembly documents are available on its website, http://www.nato-pa.int

017 DSC 05 E 1 I. SUMMARY 1. Nearly   forty   members   of   the   Defence   and   Security   Committee   led   by   Chairman               Joel Hefley (United States) visited the United States and met with numerous government officials and experts.  After three days of meetings in Washington DC, the committee travelled to St. Louis where they visited US Transportation Command at Scott Air Force Base and Whiteman Air Force Base, home of the B-2 aircraft.   2. The  main  themes  of  the  meetings  were  operations  in  Iraq  and  Afghanistan,  the  general state of the transatlantic relationship and its prospects in the second Bush administration, defence transformation, and counter-terrorism.   3. In  general,  most  officials  and  non-governmental  experts  who  spoke  with  the  Committee were optimistic about the prospects for Afghanistan.  Much has improved over the past year: the Taliban is a minimal presence with little popular support, the national army and police forces are developing at a reasonable pace, and the central government is increasingly gaining control over the whole of the country.  At the same time, narcotics production remains a serious impediment to the long-term stability of the country. 4. Iraq  was  seen  as  more  problematic,  although  most  expected  the  level  of  violence  to decrease  after  the  30  January  election,  and  the  security  situation  to  gradually  improve  as  the country developed democratic political institutions.  Even so, it is expected that large numbers of US troops will remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future.  This presents a security paradox in some analysts’  eyes;  it  is  necessary  to  maintain  a  military  presence  until  the  Iraqi  security  forces  are strong enough to stand on their own, but at the same time the presence of foreign troops may be fuelling the insurgency. 5. Government  officials  and  non-governmental  experts  noted  the  recent  efforts  of  the  Bush Administration  to  improve  transatlantic  relations.  The  first  foreign  visitor  to  the  White  House following President Bush’s re-election was NATO’s Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, a sign of the president’s priorities in his second term. The forthcoming NATO and EU summits are being seen in Washington as an opportunity to strengthen transatlantic ties following the rifts over Iraq. 6. Despite  the  evident  desire  to  work  more  closely  with  Allies,  speakers  from  both  the administration and Congress voiced serious concerns about two issues that could re-exacerbate transatlantic tensions. The first of these concerned national caveats - restrictions placed on forces and  personnel  assigned  to  NATO  missions.  This  is  not  a  new  issue—such  caveats  caused operation  difficulties  in  Kosovo—but  the  problem  has  resurfaced in a potentially more damaging fashion over NATO’s activities in Iraq. Although the Alliance agreed to the training mission in Iraq, certain   nations   are   preventing   their   personnel   assigned   to   NATO   multinational   staff   from participating in this mission. Defense Department officials pointed out that this not only affects the mission in Iraq but, more importantly for the long term, runs counter to the spirit of multi-nationality that underpins NATO's military structure and to the principle of consensus itself. 7. Another issue threatening to cloud the horizon is the prospect that the European Union will lift its embargo on arms sales to China. Several EU members are working to lift this ban imposed 15 years ago following China’s crackdown on protestors in Tiananmen Square. The United States is concerned that this would allow China to purchase European weapons systems and increase its ability to threaten the independence of Taiwan. Strength of feeling on the issue varied, but given the heavy presence of US forces in the Pacific, many US officials were alarmed at the prospect that European weapons might be used against American forces in the event of a conflict between the US and China. The most restrained view was that transatlantic defence-industrial co-operation

017 DSC 05 E 2 would be far more problematic if the ban were lifted. However, one Senator said that it was difficult to see how a nation that sold arms to China could be an ally of the United States. 8. The   DSC   meeting   in   the   United   States   concluded   with   visits   to   United   States Transportation Command at Scott Air Force Base in Illinois and to the Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the home of America’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber fleet. Both provided vivid illustrations of United States technological and military prowess, and the truly global nature of its operations. The visit was hosted by Rep. John Shimkus (United States), and accompanied by several members of Congress. II. AFGHANISTAN 9. Ian Brzezinski, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Europe and NATO Policy noted that the mission in Afghanistan represents a significant success for the region and for the alliance.   His  main  concern  was  seeing  that  forces  are  committed  to  fill  the  second  stage  of  the  plan  to increase the presence of ISAF in the country.  In particular, he emphasized the need to establish new PRTs in western Afghanistan.  He was fairly confident that this would be accomplished by the end  of  February.    He  also  welcomed  the  participation  of  Italy  and  Lithuania  in  the  new  PRT  in Herat.      Mr  Brzezinski  also  raised  the  possibility  of  merging  the  US-led  Operation  Enduring Freedom and the NATO-led ISAF mission.  The US has favoured this merger for at least a year but some allies have been reluctant to do so given the different character of the mission.  But at the point, most troops in Afghanistan in both operations are involved in stability and reconstruction assistance missions, not active combat.  Therefore it may be time to reconsider this option. 10. Ambassador Bob Bradtke, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, also emphasized the importance of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan.  He outlined some of the recent developments noting that five new PRTs are being set up in the western part of the country and that the US will put two of its team under NATO control provided that its European partners  can  find  the  personnel  for  the  currently  planned  expansion  of  PRTs.    Mr  Bradtke  also discussed the idea that we should reconsider a merger of ISAF and Operation Enduring Freedom.   11. Patrick  Moon, the head coordinator for Afghanistan policy at the State Department, also discussed the situation there and underlined the very significant progress of the past year.  Militia groups are laying down their arms and rejoining civilian society.  This demilitarisation program has been highly successful and 90% of the heavy weapons in the inventory of the militias are now in storage  under  the  control  of  the  national  government.    There  is  still  a  lot  to  be  done  on reintegrating former militia members into society, but many have joined the Afghan National Army.    Mr  Moon  also  noted  that  the  PRTs  have  been  successful  in  extending  the  power  of  the  central government.  Now that the security situation is increasing stable, the new emphasis of US policy in Afghanistan will be more on building job skills, education, and increasing foreign investment.   12. Mr  Moon  also  discussed  the  narcotics  problem.    206,000  hectares  are  under  cultivation, providing  90%  of  the  heroin  consumed  in  Europe.    The  US  in  close  cooperation  with  the  UK  is working  on  a  five  pillar  plan  to  combat  narcotics  production  in  Afghanistan  based  on  education, interdiction,  law  enforcement  education  for  Afghan  police  and  judicial  system  personnel,  crop eradication, and alternative development.  He added that eradication would happen under Afghan leadership and that the role of the US and the UK is to support their efforts through training and funding.

017 DSC 05 E 3 III. IRAQ 13. Mr  Brzezinski  noted  that  the  Alliance  is  struggling  to  fill  the  training  mission  in  Iraq.   Approximately  335  NATO  troops  are  deployed  on  the  training  mission  in  Iraq  and  it  is  expected that  NATO  will  eventually  set  up  a  training  facility  with  approximately  1700  personnel.    National caveats  are  playing  a  destructive  role,  because  some  alliance  members  are  preventing  their officers   in   multinational   headquarters   from   participating   in   the   operation.      Mr   Brzezinski emphasized that it is critical that personnel in the international military structure do what they are tasked  with  by  the  alliance’s  political  leadership.    Not  doing  so  brings  into  question  the  entire multinational command structure and the basic principles of the Alliance. 14. Mr Bradtke also spoke about the training mission in Iraq and the need to support a mission that had been approved by all NATO members.  The critical element at this point is helping Iraq become more capable of providing for its own security.  He suggested setting up some trust funds to pay for transportation equipment and training outside of Iraq for Iraqi military forces.  On a more general note, he emphasized the importance of reaching out beyond Iraq to other countries in the region and working with existing institutions such as the Gulf Cooperation Council.   15. Michael  O’Hanlon  of  the  Brooking  Institution  gave  the  committee  a  non-governmental perspective  on the situation in Iraq and US policy options.  He said that the security situation in Iraq  is  bad  with  little  prospect  for  improvement  on  the  horizon,  although  the  situation  may  be somewhat better since the elimination of the terrorist bases in Fallujah.  Economically the country is  in  better  condition  than  under  the  last  years  of  the  Hussein  regime  but  there  are  serious problems.    Electricity  generation  has  fallen  off  due  to  insurgent  attacks  on  generation  facilities.   Progress  is  too  slow  to  change  the  psychology  of  the  Iraqi  population  and  this  fuels  the insurgency.  Public opinion is self-contradictory: the vast majority of Iraqis want foreign troops to leave the country but also want foreign troops to remain and provide security.  Gradual withdrawal is  a  solution  but  the  US  will  have  to  maintain  some  presence  to  provide  security  for  the foreseeable future.  At the moment, no reduction is being considered; the Pentagon is planning on maintaining current troop levels for the next two years.   IV. DEFENCE TRANSFORMATION 16. Mr   Brzezinski   noted   that   although   NATO   has   successfully   reduced   the   number   of commands  from  20  to  11,  there  is  less  progress  in  cutting  personnel  associated  with  those commands.  This in an ineffective use of personnel and there should be a renewed effort to trim the personnel structure at military commands by 30%.   17. Reform of the military commands should be matched by reform of the structures at NATO headquarters.  The committee structure is unnecessarily heavy and is in some ways a relic of the cold war era.  There is no need for four separate budget committees each with its own accounting system.  There  are  other  examples  of inefficiency that collectively consume $40 million per year.   Mr Brzezinski suggested that this could be a fruitful issue for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly to investigate.   18. Guy   Ben-Ari,   co-author   of   a   recent   National   Defence   University   study   on   defence technology  developments  in  Europe  briefed  the  Committee  on  the  report’s  findings.    The  study found  considerable  reason  to  question  the  commonly  held  assumption  that  there  is  a  wide  and growing   gap   in   defence   technology   between   the   US   and   Europe.      The   study   looked   at technologies  under  development  in  the  United  Kingdom,  France,  Germany,  Italy,  Spain  and Sweden  and  found  fairly  sophisticated  technologies  in  command  and  control,  communications,

017 DSC 05 E 4 and   intelligence,   surveillance   and   reconnaissance   (C4ISR).      Mr   Ben-Ari   noted   significant        break-throughs in the area of unmanned aerial vehicles and an up and coming space capability.   In  conclusion,  the  study  found  that  the  assumed  technology  gap  is  no  longer  really  an  issue, although there are still large differences in how and how much individual allies choose to spend on those emerging technologies.  However, Mr. Ben-Ari also noted that the C4ISR is generally less expensive than large weapons platforms such as fighter aircraft or combat vessels.  He stated that the way forward in a cost-effective manner will be to work more on establishing linkages between systems   across   the   alliance   and   investing   in   plug-and-play   technology   that   can   be   easily integrated into existing command and control systems.   19. He recommended that Europe in general should commit to spending more on C4ISR and use  the  new  European  Defence  Agency  as a means of planning defence procurement.  Europe should  also  open  its  defence  markets  to  be  more  acceptant  of  available  US  systems  that  could provide a significant boost in capability for a relatively small cost.  He also recommended that the US  relax  export  controls  and  technology  transfer  controls  which  are  a  serious  obstacle  to transatlantic defence collaboration. V. TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS IN THE SECOND BUSH ADMINISTRATION 20. Kurt Volker, Director for European Policy at the National Security Council, stated that we are entering a new phase in transatlantic relations.  We are in a period that requires unity among democratic states to confront the dangers posed by a confluence of weapons of mass destruction and  international  terrorism.    Military  force  is  not  the  solution  to  all  problems,  and  it  is  more important  to  focus  on  changing  the  environment  that  breeds  terrorist  activity.    This  was  the message of the president’s inaugural address and it has long echoes in US foreign policy.  Free people  develop  prosperous  societies  and  the  long-term  strategy  of  the  United  States  is  to  help establish the conditions that will allow freedom and prosperity to take root in the regions currently beset by despotism and poverty.  This will in turn eliminate the roots of terrorist activity and benefit our mutual security.  It is important that we have a united transatlantic vision of the kind of world we want to see develop.  As a united force we project a sense of inevitability, but divided we allow one side to be played against the other. 21. Ivo  Daalder  of  the  Brookings  Institution  stated  that  he  is  a  short-term  pessimist  on  the transatlantic relationship but a long-term optimist.  In the short term, he sees very little change in the second Bush Administration.  Style may change and rhetoric may be more polite, but the basic policy direction is not likely to change.  Before the US elections it was possible for Europe to see the  Bush  administration as something of an anomaly and not representative of US society.  But after  his  re-election  by  a  wide  margin,  Europe  increasingly  views  the  US  as  fundamentally different.  There is also a structural factor at work regardless of who is in the White House: Europe and the United States are simply less important to one another after the end of the Cold War.  The atlanticism  that  has  driven  the  past  60  years  of  US  foreign  policy  is  over  to  a  large  extent.  His optimism stems from the fact that the US cannot do all of what it wants to do to by itself and will turn to its natural allies in Europe for assistance.  A strong united Europe is a better partner for the US, although Mr Daalder questioned if the current administration understands this point.   22. Hans  Binnendijk  and  Richard  Kugler  of  the  National  Defence  University  looked  at  the way  forward  for  the  Alliance.    They  noted  that  some  issues  show  an  alliance  in  trouble,  but  the missions  in  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina  and  Afghanistan  show  that  the  US  and  Europe  can  work together.    Both  acknowledged  that  the  time  is  not  right  to  get  agreement  on  a  new  strategic concept  for  the  alliance,  although  that  would  be  desirable.    Instead,  we  should  focus  on  more proactive  steps  that  will  make  the  alliance  more  effective,  such  as  increasing  the  number  of

017 DSC 05 E 5 deployable  forces  and  building  a  special  operations  command.    They  argued  for  building  a standing capability for reconstruction and stabilization in NATO. 23. On a more political note, they pointed out that the recent re-election of George Bush shows some  distinct  differences  in  the  political  climate  between  the  US  and  Europe.    Europe  needs  to recognize  that  the  president  has  popular  support,  but  the  US  must  get  more  serious  about  the Atlantic  alliance.  Mr Kugler was more concerned about the US divorcing Europe than the other way  around  and  that  the  way  to  that  undesirable  outcome  could  be  long  arguments  about  the Middle East.  To prevent this from happening we should focus on pragmatic steps and then come to a debate on a common strategic vision.  He noted that something similar occurred in the 1960s when tensions were high in the alliance. 24. Questions focused on the meaning of the president’s inaugural speech and what he meant by spreading freedom.  Mr Volker answered that NATO has had a role in promoting democracy for some time but that it could take a more proactive approach.  We can no longer take a laissez-faire attitude  toward  non-free  societies  because  of  the  link  between  a  lack  of  political  and  economic freedom, economic failure, popular discontent and terrorism. VI. COUNTER-TERRORISM 25. Lee Hamilton, vice-chair of the US commission charged with investigating the attacks on the  United  States  on  September  11  briefed  the  committee  on  the  commissions  findings.    He emphasized that terrorism will remain the main threat to the US for some time to come and that four   basic   pillars   would   be   essential   to   a   successful   counter-terrorism   program.      Firstly, identification of the enemy and their reasons for attacking the US and other countries is critical.  Is it a single global entity or a diffuse set of organizations? Are they motivated by a hatred of western values or is it more about specific policies and issues?  Those questions are important because it is  difficult  to  shape  an  effective  strategy  to  combat  them  unless  we  have  a  clear  picture of who they are and why they act. Secondly, it is important to better integrate the forces we can bring to bear against terrorists.  Mr Hamilton warned that there is no single solution, but rather we need a comprehensive  strategy  that  can  integrate all of the elements of power including diplomacy, law enforcement,  covert  action  and  public  diplomacy.    Thirdly,  we  need  to  have  a  truly  international effort.    We  must  foster  not  just  better  cooperation  between  the  different  intelligence  and  border control agencies in the US, but also between the US and its allies.  Fourth, we need to improve our collection,  analysis  and  processing  of  intelligence.    Information  was  available  that  could  have helped  to  prevent  the  terrorist  attack  on  the  United  States,  but  there  was  a  failure  at  different levels to pull together all of the available information.  Mr Hamilton noted that approximately four billion bytes of data come through the US intelligence services each day- the real question is how to sift through that large volume of data and find the vital bits of information.   26. Questions to Mr Hamilton focused on how intelligence could be better coordinated among allies and the need for better human intelligence.  Mr Hamilton noted that there has been marked improvement  in  international  coordination  in  some  areas  but  that  additional  mechanisms  are needed.  As  for  human  intelligence,  he  said  that  there  is  a  long-standing  need  for  better  human sources,  but  the  real problem lies in who is willing to be tasked for such difficult and hazardous work.    It  is  unlikely  that  we  will  be  able  to  build  up  a  group  of  western  individuals  willing  to penetrate terrorist cells.